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{{Merge|CIR process|date=September 2010}}
 
[[Image:SQRTDiffusion.png|thumb|Three trajectories of CIR Processes]]
In [[mathematical finance]], the '''Cox&ndash;Ingersoll&ndash;Ross model''' (or '''CIR model''') describes the evolution of [[interest rate]]s. It is a type of "one factor model" ([[short rate model]]) as it describes interest rate movements as driven by only one source of [[market risk]]. The model can be used in the valuation of [[interest rate derivative]]s. It was introduced in 1985 by [[John C. Cox]], [[Jonathan E. Ingersoll]] and [[Stephen Ross (economist)|Stephen A. Ross]] as an extension of the [[Vasicek model]].
 
== The model ==
The CIR model specifies that the [[instantaneous interest rate]] follows the [[stochastic differential equation]], also named the [[CIR process]]:
 
:<math>dr_t = a(b-r_t)\, dt + \sigma\sqrt{r_t}\, dW_t</math>
 
where ''W<sub>t</sub>'' is a [[Wiener process]] modelling the random market risk factor.
 
The drift factor, ''a''(''b''&nbsp;&minus;&nbsp;''r''<sub>''t''</sub>), is exactly the same as in the Vasicek model. It ensures [[mean reversion (finance)|mean reversion]] of the interest rate towards the long run value ''b'', with speed of adjustment governed by the strictly positive parameter ''a''.
 
The [[standard deviation]] factor, <math>\sigma \sqrt{r_t}</math>, avoids the possibility of negative interest rates for all positive values of a and b.  An interest rate of zero is also precluded if the condition
 
:<math>2 a b \geq \sigma^2 \,</math>
 
is met. More generally, when the rate is at a low level (close to zero), the standard deviation also becomes very small, which dampens the effect of the random shock on the rate. Consequently, when the rate gets close to zero, its evolution becomes dominated by the drift factor, which pushes the rate upwards (towards [[steady state|equilibrium]]).
 
The same process is used in the [[Heston model]] to model stochastic volatility.
 
===Future distribution===
The distribution of future values of a CIR process can be computed in closed form:
:<math>r_{t+T} = cY</math>,
where <math>c=\frac{(1 - e^{-aT})\sigma^2}{2a}</math>, and ''Y'' is a non-central Chi-Squared distribution with <math>\frac{4ab}{\sigma^2}</math> degrees of freedom and non-centrality parameter <math>2cr_te^{-aT}</math>.
 
==Bond pricing==
Under the no-arbitrage assumption, a bond may be priced using this interest rate process. The bond price is exponential affine in the interest rate:
 
:<math>P(t,T) = A(t,T) \exp(-B(t,T) r_t)\!</math>
 
where
 
<math>
A(t,T) = \left(\frac{2h \exp((a+h)(T-t)/2)}{2h + (a+h)(\exp((T-t)h) -1)}\right)^{2ab/\sigma^2}</math>
 
<math>
B(t,T) = \frac{2(\exp((T-t)h)-1)}{2h+(a+h)(\exp((T-t)h)-1)}</math>
 
<math>
h = \sqrt{a^2+2\sigma^2}
</math>
 
==Extensions==
Time varying functions replacing coefficients can be introduced in the model in order to make it consistent with a pre-assigned term structure of interest rates and possibly volatilities. The most general approach is in Maghsoodi (1996). A more tractable approach is in Brigo and Mercurio (2001b) where an external time-dependent shift is added to the model for consistency with an input term structure of rates. A significant extension of the CIR model to the case of stochastic mean and stochastic volatility is given by [[Lin Chen]] (1996) and is known as [[Chen model]]. A CIR process is a special case of a [[basic affine jump diffusion]], which still permits a [[closed-form expression]] for bond prices.
 
==See also==
*[[Hull-White model]]
*[[Vasicek model]]
*[[Chen model]]
*[[CIR process]]
 
==References==
*{{Cite book | author=Hull, John C. | title=Options, Futures and Other Derivatives| year=2003 | publisher = Upper Saddle River, NJ: [[Prentice Hall]] | isbn = 0-13-009056-5}}
*{{Cite journal | author=Cox, J.C., J.E. Ingersoll and S.A. Ross | title=A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates | journal=[[Econometrica]]| year=1985 | volume=53 | pages=385–407 | doi=10.2307/1911242}}
*{{Cite journal | author=Maghsoodi, Y.| title=Solution of the extended CIR Term Structure and Bond Option Valuation | journal=Mathematical Finance| year=1996 | issue=6 | pages=89&ndash;109}}
*{{Cite book | title = Interest Rate Models &mdash; Theory and Practice with Smile, Inflation and Credit| author = Damiano Brigo, Fabio Mercurio | publisher = Springer Verlag | year = 2001 | edition = 2nd ed. 2006 | isbn = 978-3-540-22149-4}}
*{{Cite journal | author=Brigo, Damiano and Fabio Mercurio| title=A deterministic-shift extension of analytically tractable and time-homogeneous short rate models| journal=Finance & Stochastics| year=2001b |volume = 5 |issue=3 | pages=369&ndash;388|url=http://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/finsto/v5y2001i3p369-387.html}}
 
{{Bond market}}
{{Stochastic processes}}
 
{{DEFAULTSORT:Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Model}}
[[Category:Finance theories]]
[[Category:Interest rates]]
[[Category:Mathematical finance]]
[[Category:Fixed income analysis]]
[[Category:Stochastic processes]]
[[Category:Short-rate models]]
 
[[de:Wurzel-Diffusionsprozess#Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modell]]

Revision as of 22:58, 2 February 2014



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Three trajectories of CIR Processes

In mathematical finance, the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model (or CIR model) describes the evolution of interest rates. It is a type of "one factor model" (short rate model) as it describes interest rate movements as driven by only one source of market risk. The model can be used in the valuation of interest rate derivatives. It was introduced in 1985 by John C. Cox, Jonathan E. Ingersoll and Stephen A. Ross as an extension of the Vasicek model.

The model

The CIR model specifies that the instantaneous interest rate follows the stochastic differential equation, also named the CIR process:

where Wt is a Wiener process modelling the random market risk factor.

The drift factor, a(b − rt), is exactly the same as in the Vasicek model. It ensures mean reversion of the interest rate towards the long run value b, with speed of adjustment governed by the strictly positive parameter a.

The standard deviation factor, , avoids the possibility of negative interest rates for all positive values of a and b. An interest rate of zero is also precluded if the condition

is met. More generally, when the rate is at a low level (close to zero), the standard deviation also becomes very small, which dampens the effect of the random shock on the rate. Consequently, when the rate gets close to zero, its evolution becomes dominated by the drift factor, which pushes the rate upwards (towards equilibrium).

The same process is used in the Heston model to model stochastic volatility.

Future distribution

The distribution of future values of a CIR process can be computed in closed form:

,

where , and Y is a non-central Chi-Squared distribution with degrees of freedom and non-centrality parameter .

Bond pricing

Under the no-arbitrage assumption, a bond may be priced using this interest rate process. The bond price is exponential affine in the interest rate:

where

Extensions

Time varying functions replacing coefficients can be introduced in the model in order to make it consistent with a pre-assigned term structure of interest rates and possibly volatilities. The most general approach is in Maghsoodi (1996). A more tractable approach is in Brigo and Mercurio (2001b) where an external time-dependent shift is added to the model for consistency with an input term structure of rates. A significant extension of the CIR model to the case of stochastic mean and stochastic volatility is given by Lin Chen (1996) and is known as Chen model. A CIR process is a special case of a basic affine jump diffusion, which still permits a closed-form expression for bond prices.

See also

References

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    The data offered is for normal info purposes only and isn't supposed to be personalised investment or monetary advice. Motley Fool Singapore contributor Stanley Lim would not personal shares in any corporations talked about. Singapore private home costs increased by 1.eight% within the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 0.6% within the earlier quarter. Resale prices of government-built HDB residences which are usually bought by Singaporeans, elevated by 2.5%, quarter on quarter, the quickest acquire in five quarters. And industrial property, prices are actually double the levels of three years ago. No withholding tax in the event you sell your property. All your local information regarding vital HDB policies, condominium launches, land growth, commercial property and more

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  • One of the biggest reasons investing in a Singapore new launch is an effective things is as a result of it is doable to be lent massive quantities of money at very low interest rates that you should utilize to purchase it. Then, if property values continue to go up, then you'll get a really high return on funding (ROI). Simply make sure you purchase one of the higher properties, reminiscent of the ones at Fernvale the Riverbank or any Singapore landed property Get Earnings by means of Renting

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    Discover out more about real estate funding in the area, together with info on international funding incentives and property possession. Many Singaporeans have been investing in property across the causeway in recent years, attracted by comparatively low prices. However, those who need to exit their investments quickly are likely to face significant challenges when trying to sell their property – and could finally be stuck with a property they can't sell. Career improvement programmes, in-house valuation, auctions and administrative help, venture advertising and marketing, skilled talks and traisning are continuously planned for the sales associates to help them obtain better outcomes for his or her shoppers while at Knight Frank Singapore. No change Present Rules

    Extending the tax exemption would help. The exemption, which may be as a lot as $2 million per family, covers individuals who negotiate a principal reduction on their existing mortgage, sell their house short (i.e., for lower than the excellent loans), or take part in a foreclosure course of. An extension of theexemption would seem like a common-sense means to assist stabilize the housing market, but the political turmoil around the fiscal-cliff negotiations means widespread sense could not win out. Home Minority Chief Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) believes that the mortgage relief provision will be on the table during the grand-cut price talks, in response to communications director Nadeam Elshami. Buying or promoting of blue mild bulbs is unlawful.

    A vendor's stamp duty has been launched on industrial property for the primary time, at rates ranging from 5 per cent to 15 per cent. The Authorities might be trying to reassure the market that they aren't in opposition to foreigners and PRs investing in Singapore's property market. They imposed these measures because of extenuating components available in the market." The sale of new dual-key EC models will even be restricted to multi-generational households only. The models have two separate entrances, permitting grandparents, for example, to dwell separately. The vendor's stamp obligation takes effect right this moment and applies to industrial property and plots which might be offered inside three years of the date of buy. JLL named Best Performing Property Brand for second year running

    The data offered is for normal info purposes only and isn't supposed to be personalised investment or monetary advice. Motley Fool Singapore contributor Stanley Lim would not personal shares in any corporations talked about. Singapore private home costs increased by 1.eight% within the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 0.6% within the earlier quarter. Resale prices of government-built HDB residences which are usually bought by Singaporeans, elevated by 2.5%, quarter on quarter, the quickest acquire in five quarters. And industrial property, prices are actually double the levels of three years ago. No withholding tax in the event you sell your property. All your local information regarding vital HDB policies, condominium launches, land growth, commercial property and more

    There are various methods to go about discovering the precise property. Some local newspapers (together with the Straits Instances ) have categorised property sections and many local property brokers have websites. Now there are some specifics to consider when buying a 'new launch' rental. Intended use of the unit Every sale begins with 10 p.c low cost for finish of season sale; changes to 20 % discount storewide; follows by additional reduction of fiftyand ends with last discount of 70 % or extra. Typically there is even a warehouse sale or transferring out sale with huge mark-down of costs for stock clearance. Deborah Regulation from Expat Realtor shares her property market update, plus prime rental residences and houses at the moment available to lease Esparina EC @ Sengkang

Template:Bond market Template:Stochastic processes

de:Wurzel-Diffusionsprozess#Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modell