|
|
| (One intermediate revision by one other user not shown) |
| Line 1: |
Line 1: |
| {{notability|date=October 2013}}
| | Andrew Berryhill is what his spouse enjoys to contact him and he totally digs that name. I am really fond of to go to karaoke but I've been using on new things recently. Office supervising is my profession. Her family life in Ohio.<br><br>Here is my web site ... cheap psychic readings - [http://Www.Article-galaxy.com/profile.php?a=143251 Www.Article-galaxy.com] - |
| | |
| The '''Wait Calculation''' was introduced by Andrew Kennedy in his paper "'''Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress'''",<ref>{{Cite journal |title=Interstellar Travel: The Wait Calculation and the Incentive Trap of Progress |journal=Journal of the British Interplanetary Society (JBIS) |volume=59 |number=7 |date=July 2006 |pages=239–246 |last= Kennedy |first=Andrew |url= http://www.jbis.org.uk/paper.php?p=2006.59.239 <!--|id=Refcode 2006.59.239-->}}</ref> published in the ''[[Journal of the British Interplanetary Society]]'' (JBIS).
| |
| | |
| Kennedy refutes the notion that continued growth will inhibit [[interstellar travel|setting out for the stars]] because travelers expect to be overtaken by later travelers who have faster speeds at their disposal. He points out that, assuming technology develops such that there is exponential growth in the velocity of travel, there is an optimal departure time for arriving earliest.
| |
| | |
| Kennedy shows that from any point in time to a given destination, there is a minimum to the total time to destination even with continuing exponential growth in the velocity of travel, and that voyagers can have the reasonable expectation of arriving without being overtaken by later voyagers by waiting a time ''t'' before leaving, where the relation between the time it takes to get to a destination (now, T<sub>now</sub>, or after waiting, T<sub>t</sub>,{{Citation needed|reason=This is my sane guess at the meanings of these variables, but I don’t have access to Kennedy’s paper.|date=June 2011}}) and growth in velocity of travel can be formed at its simplest by
| |
| | |
| <math>\frac{T_{now}} {T_{t}} = {(1+r)}^\tfrac{t} {2}</math> | |
| | |
| where r is the mean annual increase in world power production.
| |
| | |
| Taking a journey to [[Barnard's Star]], six [[light years]] away, as an example, Kennedy shows that with a world mean annual economic growth rate of 1.4% and a corresponding growth in the velocity of travel, the quickest human civilization might get to the star is in 1,110 years from the year 2007.
| |
| | |
| Kennedy's paper also states that a sudden discovery — like [[faster-than-light travel]] — will not nullify earlier velocities of travel and voyaging efforts. Long-term growth rates necessarily include all extraordinary discoveries and inventions, making the wait calculation a fair depiction of the facts facing interstellar voyagers. Thus, the minimum time to a given destination is an important consideration for competing colonisers of the stars, and the minimum wait time for any reasonable destination occurs long before relativistic velocities are reached.
| |
| | |
| ==References==
| |
| {{reflist}}
| |
| | |
| {{portal|Spaceflight|Science|Sci-fi}}
| |
| | |
| {{Use dmy dates|date=June 2011}}
| |
| | |
| {{space-stub}}
| |
| | |
| [[Category:Interstellar travel]]
| |
Andrew Berryhill is what his spouse enjoys to contact him and he totally digs that name. I am really fond of to go to karaoke but I've been using on new things recently. Office supervising is my profession. Her family life in Ohio.
Here is my web site ... cheap psychic readings - Www.Article-galaxy.com -