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{{No footnotes|date=April 2009}}
'''Mode choice analysis''' is the third step in the conventional four-step [[transportation forecasting]] model, following [[trip generation]] and [[trip distribution]] but before [[route assignment]]. Trip distribution's zonal interchange analysis yields a set of origin destination tables which tells where the trips will be made.  Mode choice analysis allows the modeler to determine what [[mode of transport]] will be used, and what [[modal share]] results.


The early [[transportation]] planning model developed by the [[Chicago Area Transportation Study]] (CATS) focused on [[Public transport|transit]]. It wanted to know how much travel would continue by transit. The CATS divided transit trips into two classes: trips to the CBD (mainly by subway/elevated transit, express buses, and commuter trains) and other (mainly on the local bus system). For the latter, increases in auto ownership and use were a trade-off against bus use; trend data were used. CBD travel was analyzed using historic mode choice data together with projections of CBD land uses. Somewhat similar techniques were used in many studies. Two decades after CATS, for example, the London study followed essentially the same procedure, but in this case, researchers first divided trips into those made in the inner part of the city and those in the outer part. This procedure was followed because it was thought that income (resulting in the purchase and use of automobiles) drove mode choice.
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==Diversion curve techniques==
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The CATS had diversion curve techniques available and used them for some tasks.  At first, the CATS studied the diversion of auto traffic from streets and arterial roads to proposed expressways.  Diversion curves were also used for bypasses built around cities, to find out what percent of traffic would use the bypass.  The mode choice version of diversion curve analysis proceeds this way:  one forms a ratio, say:


:<math>
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\frac{c_\text{transit} }
 
{c_\text{auto} } = R
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where:
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:''c<sub>m</sub>'' = travel time by mode ''m'' and
:''R'' is empirical data in the form:
[[Image:DiversionCurveMC.png|right|500px|Figure: Mode choice diversion curve]]


Given the ''R'' that we have calculated, the graph tells us the percent of users in the market that will choose transit. A variation on the technique is to use costs rather than time in the diversion ratio. The decision to use a time or cost ratio turns on the problem at hand. Transit agencies developed diversion curves for different kinds of situations, so variables like income and population density entered implicitly.
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Diversion curves are based on empirical observations, and their improvement has resulted from better (more and more pointed) data.  Curves are available for many markets.  It is not difficult to obtain data and array results.  Expansion of transit has motivated data development by operators and planners. [[Yacov Zahavi]]’s UMOT studies, discussed earlier, contain many examples of diversion curves.
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In a sense, diversion curve analysis is [[expert system]] analysis. Planners could "eyeball" neighborhoods and estimate transit ridership by routes and time of day. Instead, diversion is observed empirically and charts drawn.
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==Disaggregate travel demand models==
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Travel demand theory was introduced in the appendix on traffic generation.  The core of the field is the set of models developed following work by [[Stan Warner]] in 1962 (Strategic Choice of Mode in Urban Travel:  A Study of Binary Choice).  Using data from the CATS, Warner investigated classification techniques using models from biology and psychology.  Building from Warner and other early investigators, disaggregate demand models emerged.  Analysis is disaggregate in that individuals are the basic units of observation, yet aggregate because models yield a single set of parameters describing the choice behavior of the population.  Behavior enters because the theory made use of consumer behavior concepts from economics and parts of choice behavior concepts from psychology.  Researchers at the [[University of California, Berkeley]] (especially [[Daniel McFadden]], who won a [[Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel|"Nobel" Prize in Economics]] for his efforts) and the [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] ([[Moshe Ben-Akiva]]) (and in MIT associated consulting firms, especially [[Cambridge Systematics]]) developed what has become known as choice models, direct demand models (DDM), Random Utility Models (RUM) or, in its most used form, the multinomial logit model (MNL).


Choice models have attracted a lot of attention and work;  the Proceedings of the [[International Association for Travel Behavior Research]] chronicles the evolution of the models. The models are treated in modern transportation planning and transportation engineering textbooks.
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One reason for rapid model development was a felt need.  Systems were being proposed (especially transit systems) where no empirical experience of the type used in diversion curves was available. Choice models permit comparison of more than two alternatives and the importance of attributes of alternatives.  There was the general desire for an analysis technique that depended less on aggregate analysis and with a greater behavioral content. And there was attraction, too, because choice models have logical and behavioral roots extended back to the 1920s as well as roots in [[Kelvin Lancaster]]’s [[consumer behavior theory]], in [[utility theory]], and in modern [[statistics|statistical]] methods.
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[[Image:ThurstonMC.png|right|500px|Distribution of perceived weights]]
 
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Early psychology work involved the typical experiment:  Here are two objects with weights, ''w<sub>1</sub>'' and ''w<sub>2</sub>'', which is heavier?  The finding from such an experiment would be that the greater the difference in weight, the greater the probability of choosing correctly.  Graphs similar to the one on the right result.
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:''w'' = ''v'' + ''e'',
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where ''v'' is the true weight and ''e'' is random with
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:''E''(''e'') = 0.
 
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The assumption that ''e'' is normally and identically distributed (NID) yields the binary probit model.
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Economists deal with utility rather than physical weights, and say that
 
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:observed utility = mean utility + random term.
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:''u''(''x'') = ''v''(''x'') + ''e''(''x'').
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If we follow Thurston's assumption, we again have a [[probit]] model.
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An alternative is to assume that the [[errors and residuals in statistics|error term]]s are [[Independent identically-distributed random variables|independently and identically distributed]] with a [[Fisher–Tippett distribution|Weibull]], [[Fisher–Tippett distribution|Gumbel Type I]], or [[Gumbel distribution|double exponential distribution]].  (They are much the same, and differ slightly in their tails (thicker) from the [[normal distribution]]).  This yields the multinomial [[logit model]] (MNL).  Daniel McFadden argued that the Weibull had desirable properties compared to other distributions that might be used.  Among other things, the error terms are normally and identically distributed. The logit model is simply a [[log ratio]] of the probability of choosing a mode to the probability of not choosing a mode.
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\log \left( \frac{P_i }
 
{1 - P_i } \right) = v(x_i )
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Observe the mathematical similarity between the logit model and the S-curves we estimated earlier, although here share increases with utility rather than time. With a choice model we are explaining the share of travelers using a mode (or the probability that an individual traveler uses a mode multiplied by the number of travelers).
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The comparison with S-curves is suggestive that modes (or technologies) get adopted as their utility increases, which happens over time for several reasons. First, because the utility itself is a function of [[network effect]]s, the more users, the more valuable the service, higher the utility associated with joining the network. Second because utility increases as user costs drop, which happens when fixed costs can be spread over more users (another network effect). Third technological advances, which occur over time and as the number of users increases, drive down relative cost.
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An illustration of a utility expression is given:
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\log \left( \frac{P_A }
 
{1 - P_A } \right) = \beta _0  + \beta _1 \left( c_A  - c_T \right) + \beta _2 \left( t_A  - t_T \right) + \beta _3 I + \beta _4 N = v_A
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where
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:''P<sub>i</sub>'' = Probability of choosing mode i.
:''P<sub>A</sub>'' = Probability of taking auto
:''c<sub>A</sub>,c<sub>T</sub>'' = cost of auto, transit
:''t<sub>A</sub>,t<sub>T</sub>'' = travel time of auto, transit
:''I'' = income
:''N'' = Number of travelers


With algebra, the model can be translated to its most widely used form:
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:<math>
 
\frac{P_A } {1 - P_A } = e^{v_A }
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</math>
 
:<math>
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P_A  = e^{v_A }  - P_A e^{v_A } 
 
</math>
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:<math>
 
P_A \left( 1 + e^{v_A } \right) = e^{v_A } 
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:<math>
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P_A = \frac{e^{v_A } } {1 + e^{v_A } }
 
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It is fair to make two conflicting statements about the estimation and use of this model:
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#it's a "house of cards", and
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The "house of cards" problem largely arises from the utility theory basis of the model specification.  Broadly, utility theory assumes that (1) users and suppliers have perfect information about the market; (2) they have deterministic functions (faced with the same options, they will always make the same choices); and (3) switching between alternatives is costless.  These assumptions don’t fit very well with what is known about behavior.  Furthermore, the aggregation of utility across the population is impossible since there is no universal utility scale.
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:<math>
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v_A  = \beta _0  + \beta _1 \left( c_A  - c_T \right) + \beta _2 \left( t_A  - t_T \right) + \beta _3 I + \beta _4 N
</math>


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==Econometric estimation==
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[[Image:LikelihoodMC.png|right|500px|Figure: Likelihood Function for the Sample {1,1,1,0,1}.]]


Turning now to some technical matters, how do we estimate ''v(x)''? Utility (''v(x)'') isn’t observable.  All we can observe are choices (say, measured as 0 or 1), and we want to talk about probabilities of choices that range from 0 to 1. (If we do a regression on 0s and 1s we might measure for ''j'' a probability of 1.4 or &minus;0.2 of taking an auto.)  Further, the distribution of the error terms wouldn’t have appropriate statistical characteristics.
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The MNL approach is to make a [[maximum likelihood]] estimate of this functional form. The likelihood function is:
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:<math>
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L^*  = \prod_{n = 1}^N {f\left( {y_n \left| {x_n ,\theta } \right.} \right)}
 
</math>
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we solve for the estimated parameters
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:<math>
 
\hat \theta \,
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</math>
 
 
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that max&nbsp;''L''*. This happens when:
 
 
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:<math>
 
\frac{\partial L}
  </ul>
{\partial \hat \theta _N } = 0
</math>
 
The log-likelihood is easier to work with, as the products turn to sums:
 
:<math>
\ln L^*  = \sum_{n = 1}^N  \ln f\left( y_n \left| x_n ,\theta \right. \right)
</math>
 
Consider an example adopted from John Bitzan’s Transportation Economics Notes. Let ''X'' be a binary variable that is ''&gamma;'' and 0 with probability (1&nbsp;&minus;&nbsp;''gamma''). Then f(0) = (1&nbsp;&minus;&nbsp;''&gamma;'') and f(1) = ''&gamma;''Suppose that we have 5 observations of ''X'', giving the sample {1,1,1,0,1}. To find the maximum likelihood estimator of ''&gamma;'' examine various values of ''&gamma;'', and for these values determine the probability of drawing the sample {1,1,1,0,1}
If ''&gamma;'' takes the value 0, the probability of drawing our sample is 0. If ''&gamma;'' is 0.1, then the probability of getting our sample is: f(1,1,1,0,1) = f(1)f(1)f(1)f(0)f(1) = 0.1×0.1×0.1×0.9×0.1 = 0.00009 We can compute the probability of obtaining our sample over a range of ''&gamma;'' – this is our likelihood function. The likelihood function for n independent observations in a logit model is
 
:<math>
L^*  = \prod_{n = 1}^N {P_i ^{Y_i } } \left( 1 - P_i \right)^{1 - Y_i }
</math>
 
where: ''Y<sub>i</sub>'' = 1 or 0 (choosing e.g. auto or not-auto) and Pi = the probability of observing ''Y''<sub>''i''</sub>&nbsp;=&nbsp;1
 
The log likelihood is thus:
 
:<math>
\ell  = \ln L^*  = \sum_{i = 1}^n \left[ Y_i \ln P_i  + \left( 1 - Y_i \right)\ln \left( 1 - P_i \right) \right]
</math>
 
In the binomial (two alternative) logit model,
 
:<math>
P_\text{auto}  = \frac{e^{v(x_\text{auto} )} }
{1 + e^{v(x_\text{auto} )} }
</math>, so
:<math>
\ell  = \ln L^*  = \sum_{i = 1}^n \left[ Y_i v(x_\text{auto} ) - \ln \left( 1 + e^{v(x_\text{auto} )} \right) \right]
</math>
 
The log-likelihood function is maximized setting the partial derivatives to zero:
 
:<math>
\frac{\partial \ell}{\partial \beta} = \sum_{i = 1}^n \left( Y_i  - \hat P_i \right) = 0
</math>
 
The above gives the essence of modern MNL choice modeling.
 
==Additional topics==
Topics not touched on include the “red bus, blue bus” problem; the use of nested models (e.g., estimate choice between auto and transit, and then estimate choice between rail and bus transit); how consumers’ surplus measurements may be obtained; and model estimation, goodness of fit, etc. For these topics see a textbook such as Ortuzar and Willumsen (2001).
 
==Returning to roots==
The discussion above is based on the economist’s utility formulation. At the time MNL modeling was developed there was some attention to psychologist's choice work (e.g., [[Luce's choice axiom|Luce’s choice axioms]] discussed in his Individual Choice Behavior, 1959). It has an analytic side in computational process modeling. Emphasis is on how people think when they make choices or solve problems (see Newell and Simon 1972). Put another way, in contrast to utility theory, it stresses not the choice but the way the choice was made.  It provides a conceptual framework for travel choices and agendas of activities involving considerations of long and short term memory, effectors, and other aspects of thought and decision processes. It takes the form of rules dealing with the way information is searched and acted on.  Although there is a lot of attention to behavioral analysis in transportation work, the best of modern psychological ideas are only beginning to enter the field. (e.g. Golledge, Kwan and Garling 1984; Garling, Kwan, and Golledge 1994).
 
==External links==
* [http://www.atsl.cee.vt.edu/tsam.htm Transportation Systems Analysis Model] – TSAM is a nationwide transportation planning model to forecast intercity travel behavior in the United States.
 
==See also==
*[[Modal share]]
 
==References==
* Garling, Tommy Mei Po Kwan, and Reginald G. Golledge. Household Activity Scheduling, Transportation Research, 22B, pp.&nbsp;333–353. 1994.
* [[Reginald Golledge|Golledge. Reginald G.]], Mei Po Kwan, and Tommy Garling, “Computational Process Modeling of Household Travel Decisions,” Papers in Regional Science, 73, pp.&nbsp;99–118. 1984.
* Lancaster, K.J., A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 1966. 74(2): p.&nbsp;132–157.
* Luce, Duncan R. (1959). Individual choice behavior, a theoretical analysis. New York, Wiley.
* Newell, A. and Simon, H. A. (1972). Human Problem Solving. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
* Ortuzar, Juan de Dios and L. G. Willumsen’s Modelling Transport. 3rd Edition. Wiley and Sons. 2001,
* Thurstone, L.L. (1927). A law of comparative judgement. Psychological Review, 34, 278–286.
* Warner, Stan 1962 Strategic Choice of Mode in Urban Travel: A Study of Binary Choice
 
{{Transportation-planning}}
 
[[Category:Transportation planning]]

Latest revision as of 11:12, 21 November 2014

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I recognize that there's tremendous anger towards the US Attorneys' office over this example, and much of that anger is likely justified. But channeling that anger into childish threats doesn't help anyone, least of all Swartz's memory and family. Yes, the prosecution of Swartz was unfair, and I would support a legitimate investigation into what went down and ways to keep the DOJ from such overzealous prosecution in the future (though, I agree with others this sort of thing is endemic to the DOJ, and wasn't unique to Swartz's situation). But these actions turn the DOJ into victims and provide them an excuse to hide behind. These kinds of attacks may make some kids feel better, but they don't help whatsoever.

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Why has it been rejected? Obviously not on stylistic or scholarly grounds. So presumably it has been rejected because it might offend people. Well, the majority of the responses you have had have seen the merits within the article, even if they disagree with specific points. Hey Scouts, Aces, Subs, could this 't be published as an edited entry using the comment at the top that a personal piece? Covering religion is just as personal and just as valid as writing about an individual experience with disease.

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Changing a form that s used by half the organization said Buehrens chief user experience architect in the ICW Group a San Diego insurance company in the commercial auto and workmans compensation fields It was something a company manager wanted and last week before I came here I would have said Sure change it If someone doesn t like it cope with it Today based on things i ve learned I said Let s pull quite a few users out of various departments and test drive it on them to see if it confuses their mental model The company manager wanted a new option in the form but Buehrens said she d found that if the users are on task and a new option pops up they ll be confused Just sticking a new option there might be the easiest solution for that programmer but we should not do it if it confuses the user Learning to deal with issues like that 's the reason she came to the conference Our whole company is changing from a small company having a small company culture to a large first tier company with a large company culture That means we will be offering more Web services and materials So we want to make sure from the beginning that we are doing them right that we are not designing them to live in that we are in fact designing them for that users You can think all day that you are doing it right and be wrong My goal is to help the company offer a consistent experience from the time someone logs in with the Web sites and the intranet and all the forms that people have to fill out They should be able to move from one thing to the next and employ the sameis something that they have wanted for a few years and it was approved but other projects with more business value kept approaching But by using the new Microsoft product to build the intranet we will be able to show off our expertise Our intranet will end up a selling tool and be a business opportunity for selling intranets to clients she explained Regardless of the technology in question however the present system needs to go she said Currently many people are putting content on our intranet when it is not their full time job and they are not coders so it's difficult and intimidating on their behalf I help them but I m a one person staff Basically there are nearly 300 people who supply content she said currently producing between 75 and 100 new items weekly With the planned system There will be easier to use tools for inputting information with templates and a global library of content that will make it easier for them to create pages The interface could be more drag and drop instead of creating code Also with MOSS you are able to reorganize and re architect We would like a system that Buy Nike Air Max 2013 we can scale towards the growth of the company and add things to seamlessly she said When it comes to current system You just have to learn it there isn't any persistent navigation A lot of problems might be solved just by fixing that And right now anyone can publish anything there isn't any approval process she said Even worse the system has a flaw it'll publish a Michael Kors Iphone Wristlet user s saved but possibly unfinished file if another user in the same department site publishes a saved document she explained When the current system was set up the contributors were givenGoing Beyond What Users Are Doing to Why: Usability Week 2012 Conference: Nielsen Norman Group

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President/CEO Kazuo Hirai hopes a makeover can keep PlayStation Air Jordan 5 Grape relevant and revive profitability. Hirai who considers the console the centerpiece of the exclusive content universe running on Sony phones, tablets and TVs is working to improve its mobilegaming position: "We're trying to leverage past expertise in the standard videogame business and bring that have onto the smartphone," he explained. Sony needs to get its PlayStation strategy right; it hasn't made profit the TV business since March 2004. For more: Bloomberg

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